PS: Most Anticipated Oscar Season 2025 - 2026 Movie Release (Late Sept)

Oscar season (according to Wikipedia) The Oscar season is the time period in which Hollywood studios release or promote the films they consider most likely to be critically acclaimed, hoping to win at the Academy Awards. Criteria Oscar season usually begins in the fall following the usual slate of summer blockbuster movies. While October lends itself to horror releases, the first batch of prospective Oscar films tend to come out that month, followed by a steadier release in November and December. Origins The Academy Awards occur every late February and films that win awards typically see a boost in sales. To take advantage of this, the studios release films they deem "Oscar worthy" in the fall, before the eligibility cut-off, so that the films remain fresh in the memories of critics and Academy members right before the Awards, increasing their chances of being nominated. Campaigning During Oscar season, studios heavily campaign for their films to win, spending large amounts of money in an attempt to influence Academy voters. Harvey Weinstein, of Miramax, was especially notorious for his campaigning. Weinstein was alleged to have spread rumors that John Nash was antisemitic, to hurt the chances of A Beautiful Mind, which was competing for the awards with the Miramax film In the Bedroom. It was also suspected, although unproven, that Weinstein was involved with the nomination of The Reader in 2009, a film that received mixed reviews from critics. The Oscars represent a rare slice of Hollywood where independent film distributors with their moderate and low-budget films can best the major studios and their blockbusters. Because Oscar voters gravitate to serious content that is abundant in indie films, the glossy major-studio films are usually passed over. The awards campaigns involve placed advertising labeled with the subtle “for your consideration”, talent appearances in industry seminars, by-invitation parties, soliciting press coverage, screenings of films in theaters, online or via mailed DVDs, and direct email and print mail marketing messages to voters.

IMHO and that of others in the industry, Goldderby is a best source for handicapping the Oscars and the most reliable predictor of nominations and wins. Plus, it is continually updated over the year as industry sentiments change. goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2026 As stated, this list is comprised of every film released during Oscars season that is listed as a favorite for an Oscar nomination: Answer pool comprised of scheduled narrative fictional film releases generally falling between October 2025 and January 2026; and those films that are an Academy Award nomination favorite in one or more of the "Big Five" Oscar categories: Best Picture (Top 30 odds rank), Best Director (Top 20 odds rank), Best Actor (Top 15 odds rank), Best Actress (Top 15 odds rank), Best Original Screenplay (Top 15 odds rank), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Top 15 odds rank) categories, according to the GoldDerby Oscars survey ranks (as of 09/20/25). It is not a list based on my personal opinions, but a composite score of Goldderby experts, editors and users. You missed that 'Sentimental Value' is listed at #18 in the answer pool. 'Roofman' barely made the list and is a fringe candidate or a dark horse with only one qualifying rank and two near misses. It is ranked at #29 (Top30 cutoff) for Best Picture odds, #22 ranked (Top20 cutoff) for Derek Cianfrance for Best Director odds and #16 ranked (Top15 cutoff) for Best Adapted Screenplay odds. It is probably the second to last film to qualify for the answer pool along with 'Eleanor the Great', which is being considered for one of the five Best Actress nominations with June Squibb ranked #11 for her 'Eleanor the Great' lead acting performance. I wouldn't put much stock in the early Meta Scores or IMDb ratings for movies that yet to be even released, even then the best films don't always win or even get nominated. Seasoned followers of the Academy Awards realize that it is not unheard of for undeserving films (or lowly rated) to win Best Picture and have double-digit nominations. (ie Tom Jones (1963) or to focus on them, when they may not reflect obscure exceptional performances in one category, while the rest of the performances in the movie may be average or even below average for that same film.

I rewrote the text, so it is easier to understand how the list was comprised and emphasizes the pool's strength as a definitive list of 35 strongest candidates for a "Big Five" Oscar nomination that release during Oscars season, even though the last few listees maybe long shots or dark horse candidates for even a single nomination. The dark horse candidates still have relatively strong odds being in the top 35 out of the 200+ some movies released during that time period, placing them in the top 17.5% tier of films of Q4 2025 releases."* Answer pool comprised of narrative fictional film with a scheduled release, generally falling between October 2025 and January 2026, and ranked as an Academy Award nomination favorite, contender, or dark horse candidate in one or more of the "Big Five" Oscar categories. These films will be according to the GoldDerby Oscars survey ranks (as of 09/20/25) among the most likely to receive a nomination in the following categories: Best Picture (Top 30 odds rank), Best Director (Top 15 odds rank), Best Actor (Top 15 odds rank), Best Actress (Top 15 odds rank), Best Original Screenplay (Top 15 odds rank), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Top 15 odds rank). Oscar season films will be noted with their 2025 - 2026 USA debut dates and/or the date of their Oscar-qualifying run in a NYC/LA theater." Rule of Thumb for Academy Award nomination favorite, contender, or dark horse candidate labels in one or more of the "Big Five" Oscar categories. These films will be according to the GoldDerby Oscars survey ranks (as of 09/20/25) among the most likely to receive a nomination in the following categories: FAVORITES Best Picture (Top 1-10 odds rank), Best Director (Top 1-5 odds rank), Best Actor (Top 1-5 odds rank), Best Actress (Top 1-5 odds rank), Best Original Screenplay (Top 1-5 odds rank), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Top 1-5 odds rank). CONTENDERS Best Picture (Top 11-20 odds rank), Best Director (Top 6-10 odds rank), Best Actor (Top 6-10 odds rank), Best Actress (Top 6-10 odds rank), Best Original Screenplay (Top 6-10 odds rank), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Top 6-10 odds rank). DARK HORSES Best Picture (Top 21-30 odds rank), Best Director (Top 11-15 odds rank), Best Actor (Top 11-15 odds rank), Best Actress (Top 11-15 odds rank), Best Original Screenplay (Top 11-15 odds rank), and Best Adapted Screenplay (Top 11-15 odds rank).

Tsar, have you even seen 'Roofman'? While I agree it may not be one of the most mentioned films in Oscars conversations, I would concur with the Goldderby rankings listing it as a dark horse Oscar contender. I am seeing far more positive setinment for the film than negative setinment with Channing Tatum's performance being another near-miss dark horse candidate (Top 11-15 odds rank) with a #18 rank in the Best Actor category (Top15 cutoff). The film has a respectable 67 Metascore and IMDb 7.2 rating, while reviews on the aggregator website Rotten Tomatoes, found 82% of 33 critics' reviews to be positive. Plus, Roofman had its world premiere at the prestigious Toronto International Film Festival on September 6, 2025. from Metacritic.com 80 Collider - Tania Hussain With a career-best Tatum at the center and an ensemble that fills in every corner with warmth and wit, Roofman is one of this year's most pleasant surprises.80Variety - Peter DebrugeIn the end, it’s the through-the-roof chemistry between the two leads that makes the film worthy of repeat viewing. 80 Next Best Picture - Ema Sasic Roofman is another standout film from Cianfrance who continues to pull us in with fascinating character studies and explorations of humanity. Tatum delivers on every level, giving one of his very best performances thus far in his career, and Dunst gives so much through her subtle, emotional work. 80 The Hollywood Reporter - David Rooney This is the kind of disarming crowd-pleaser for which cringe-inducing clichés like “it will sneak up and steal your heart” were invented. What’s refreshing about Roofman is that it’s never too aggressive about it. It’s sentimental but sincere. 80 Screen Rant- Rachel LaBonte Even with its flaws, it’s largely an entertaining film with plenty of humor and a story that truly must be seen to be believed. Channing Tatum scores major Oscars precursor accolade before Roofman awards run. (from ew.com) Channing Tatum is laying a strong foundation for a potential awards season run for Roofman, as the star has scored one of the first major Oscars precursor accolades on the trail. The Toronto International Film Festival on Wednesday named the 45-year-old as one of the recipients of the 2025 TIFF Tribute Performer Awards, with the Magic Mike actor joining the likes of recent Oscar winners who first earned TIFF performance awards like Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker). Others recent stars who've won TIFF Tribute honors for performances and went on to score Oscar nominations include Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog).